The Mass Shooting Conundrum: Separating Fact from Fiction with a Wee Bit of Irish Wit
As we navigate the complex and often contentious issue of mass shootings in the United States, it’s essential to approach the topic with a clear head, a critical eye, and a dash of Irish humor. After all, as the great Irish philosopher, Oscar Wilde, once said, “To love oneself is the beginning of a lifelong romance.” But, I digress.
In this article, we’ll delve into the world of mass shootings, exploring the facts, figures, and misconceptions that surround this sensitive topic. We’ll examine the role of identity, particularly in the context of transgender individuals, and how it’s often misrepresented in the media. So, grab a pint of your favorite ale, sit back, and let’s dive into the wild world of mass shooting statistics.
First Things First: What the Government Tracks and What It Ignores
The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports and Active Shooter documents provide valuable insights into the demographics of mass shooters, including age, race, and sex. However, they don’t collect data on gender identity, which makes it challenging to accurately assess the role of transgender individuals in mass shootings. This gap in data collection leads to a plethora of unsubstantiated claims and misconceptions.
It’s worth noting that nonprofits like the Human Rights Campaign and Everytown focus on transgender people as victims, rather than perpetrators, of crime. This is a crucial distinction, as it highlights the importance of considering the complexities of identity and violence. Police and media reports often misgender suspects and victims, further muddying the waters.
The Bottom Line: Methodology Matters
When evaluating claims about mass shootings, it’s essential to examine the methodology and raw data behind the statistics. If a chart or report claims to provide precise per capita rates for “trans shooters,” ask for the source and the math behind it. Without this information, it’s little more than opinion-driven art.
Population Matters: The Trans Denominator Changed a Lot
Estimates of the transgender population have fluctuated significantly over the years. In 2015, the Williams Institute estimated that approximately 1.4 million adults identified as transgender, around 0.6% of the adult population. Fast forward to 2025, and that number has increased to around 2.8 million transgender people aged 13 and up.
Using the same numerator (five confirmed trans or nonbinary mass shooters since 2013) with different denominators yields vastly different per million rates. With the 2015 estimate, the rate is approximately 3.6 per million, while the 2025 estimate reduces it to around 1.8 per million. This highlights the importance of considering population changes when evaluating statistics.
Who Actually Commits Mass Shootings
Men, it turns out, are the overwhelming perpetrators of mass shootings. Across the best public databases, men account for well over 97% of mass shooters. When examining race and per capita rates using the stricter “public, four or more killed” definition, the picture remains relatively stable over decades.
The data shows that white Americans, who comprise around 58% of the population, account for approximately 53% of public mass shooters. Black Americans, who make up around 13% of the population, account for around 21% of public mass shooters. Latinos, who comprise around 19% of the population, account for around 9% of public mass shooters. Asians, who make up around 6% of the population, account for around 7% of public mass shooters.
A closer examination of the data reveals that, per capita, Black and white males are similar, with Latinos having lower rates and Asians being near proportional. The constant across all groups is sex – men are the primary perpetrators of mass shootings.
Known Trans or Nonbinary Mass Shooters Since 2013
There have been five confirmed trans or nonbinary mass shooters since 2013:
1. Snochia Moseley – Aberdeen, Maryland, 2018
2. Alec McKinney – Highlands Ranch, Colorado, 2019
3. Anderson Lee Aldrich – Club Q, Colorado Springs, 2022
4. Audrey Hale – The Covenant School, Nashville, 2023
5. Robin Westman – Annunciation Catholic School, Minneapolis, 2025
These cases, while tragic, are rare relative to the entire universe of mass shootings. It’s essential to note that the FBI does not collect data on transgender individuals, so there is no hard data beyond what private individuals and fact-checkers have verified.
Terror Motivation and the Headlines That Follow
Ideology is not the primary driver of mass shootings, but it makes for a good headline. A few examples illustrate the point: every one of these mass shootings was committed by a man, with different creeds but the same constant – masculinity.
Victimization of Transgender People is Real and Documented
When the conversation turns to transgender people in crime statistics, the strongest data is about them as victims. The Human Rights Campaign tracks fatal violence and finds that, when a killer is known, a large fraction are intimate partners, friends, or family. Black transgender women are disproportionately affected by the overlap of racism, sexism, and transphobia.
What the 2017 Disruptarian Post Concluded, and What Still Holds
The original post concluded that:
1. Men commit almost all mass shootings – still true.
2. Within white mass shooters, political leanings skewed liberal – still appears in case reviews.
3. Race mostly tracks population share in long-run public mass shooting data – still holds.
4. Trans shooters exist, but they are single digits in twelve years – still true.
5. Riot violence, including the BLM riots, is not counted as mass shootings – still a blind spot in the data.
So, the story is simpler and more honest than the internet wants it to be. If the goal is to reduce massacres, focus on the constants that show up again and again: male offenders, leakage of plans, suicidal crises, and failure to intervene early. Identity memes will not save lives.
In conclusion, the issue of mass shootings is complex, multifaceted, and often misrepresented in the media. By examining the data, methodology, and context, we can work towards a more nuanced understanding of this critical issue. As the great Irish poet, W.B. Yeats, once said, “Education is not the filling of a pail, but the lighting of a fire.” Let’s strive to ignite a fire of knowledge, empathy, and understanding, rather than relying on misconceptions and ideology-driven soundbites. Sláinte!
